IS MEDICAL TOURISM SMALL? 

The number of people traveling the globe for medical treatment likely is far lower than commonly assumed, but there remains potential for huge growth in the industry, according to a study by consulting firm McKinsey & Co.

Just 60,000 to 85,000 patients a year travel to another country expressly for inpatient hospital care each year, according to the study. Moreover, most aren't seeking low-cost care in the developing world, the phenomenon that has garnered considerable attention lately. Instead, many of the medical tourists seek the latest treatments available in the U.S. and other industrialized countries.

The consulting firm analyzed the behavior of nearly 50,000 patients using data from unidentified hospitals around the world, as well as government travel records and other information. The researchers also interviewed patients and hospital officials. They estimate the sample amounted to 60% to 80% of the world-wide market.

The figure contrasts sharply with those often used by medical-tourism marketers -- one said Asia attracts 1.3 million medical tourists a year -- and anecdotal accounts. "There's been an enormous amount of hype," said Paul Mango, who heads McKinsey's health-care practice. However, he noted that the report estimates that the eventual market for Americans seeking cheaper care abroad at perhaps 710,000 procedures a year.

The Medical Tourism Association , a trade group in West Palm Beach, Fla., that represents hospitals, travel agents and brokers, among others, avoids trying to quantify the industry's size precisely because there is no consistent definition of medical tourism, said Chief Operating Officer Renee-Marie Stephano. And, citing the complexity of collecting comprehensive data, she cautioned that McKinsey's numbers are likely to be similarly flawed because they involve only a sample of facilities and look at hospital admissions. "A large portion of the medical-tourism industry is based in cosmetic procedures and dental care, which are not performed in hospitals," Ms. Stephano said.

To arrive at its estimate, Mr. Mango's team focused on patients traveling expressly for inpatient hospital care and excluded several categories that the consultants said were commonly included in higher estimates. Those include expatriates seeking treatment in the countries where they live, tourists seeking unexpected medical attention, and some patients traveling short distances across borders for care not available nearby in their own country.

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By THEO FRANCIS

More on this story at "The Wall Street Journal"

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